The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. Why Higher Interest Rates are Dangerous for the United States, Four Key Lessons from the CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, Interest May Cost Us a Record Amount of Money within 10 Years, Peaking Crime Rates Spur a Change in Anti-Police Attitudes. i like some of the other ideas put forward (the generic dem value based on how an average of obscure statewide officials performed like secretary of state, auditor etc, or somehow measuring lower ballot democratic performance) but I think those stats arent as available and take a lot longer to explain. . But for places that have seen rapid shifts towards one party or the other in the last six years such as in South Florida or suburbs of Dallas the new formula "leans in" to the transformation underway. 128.255.79.33 NYU School of LawView posts , Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law SchoolView posts , Fred W. & Vi Miller Dean and Professor of Law First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. If we all decide it is stupid and is worth making a new system over, then why present the other? PVI tells us which districts flow with the tides and which are stubbornly resistant. The PVI is designed to reflect the unique partisan nature of each congressional district. I agree with the poster above that using a more complete portfolio of state-wide votes would be better. Hardly a day hardly a post goes by here at the Swing State Project without a reference to the Cook Political Reports Partisan Vote Index, or PVI for short. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201, McCarthy's Close Call Foreshadows GOP Primary Tumult in 2024, 2024 Governor Ratings: Tar Heel State Is Only Early Battleground. The letter (either a D for Democratic or an R for Republican) reflects the major party toward which the district (or state) leans. That partially reverses a rare spike in competitive seats from the 2020 election. Wyoming is rated R+25, with nearly 70 percent of voters supporting Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012. [6], Inconsistencies among vote data aggregation processes and redistricting cycles can present challenges in determining the PVI. But you dont have to take my word for it this is how the Almanac of American Politics explains things: Cook Partisan Voting Index. So, for me at least, the discussion of whether a district should be an R+13 or an R+15, depending on what baseline we use, is more of a distraction than anything. Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). One more election like the last two (hope, hope) and dealing with the Cook PVI will be like dealing with the grade in the Grand Canyon. i think whatever the methodology, it should include 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers, otherwise its increasingly out of date. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. [4] With a Cook PVI value of R+25, Wyoming is the most Republican state in the nation. i read recently that if the electorate was the same as it was in 1992, McCain would have won easily, but because of larger numbers of young people and people of color it was a whole different story. The floors all tilt in a mostly uniform fashion. The only way I can see to avoid this is to have the letter (R or D) always indicate which party won the district and the number indicate by how much. There are actually two PVI's calculated: one for each state, and a separate for each Congressional district. Yeah. Powers, privileges, procedure, committees, history, media, "The differences between real grassroots and "Astroturf" matter", "There are 119Republican House members who should be VERY nervous today", "The Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", "Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI)", Emergency Planning, Preparedness, and Operations, Scene at the Signing of the Constitution of the United States, First Reading of the Emancipation Proclamation of President Lincoln, George Washington and the Revolutionary War Door, Westward the Course of Empire Takes Its Way, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index&oldid=1133943458, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, All Wikipedia articles written in American English, Articles containing potentially dated statements from 2022, All articles containing potentially dated statements, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0. [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. Segregation in the US and the dissimilarity index. Below is our 2022 Cook Partisan Voter Index (Cook PVI) score for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Stanford Law SchoolView posts , Sudler Family Professor In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State | Technology Trends Cook Partisan Voting Index - List of PVIs - By State By State The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. Cook Partisan Voting Index The main feature of the Report is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) . NC-02, NC-07, NC-08: Lowland southern rural districts where theres enough of a tradition of Yellow Dog Democratic voting plus a sizable African-American minority that Democrats can thrive downballot. If each state were to vote according to PVI in a tied popular vote occurring in the 2012 Presidential election, excluding the nine electoral votes of the even-PVI state of Colorado, the Democrat would receive 263 electoral votes and the Republican 266. by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. Tabatha Abu El-Haj, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum. Basing the PVI on the Presidential vote is quick and dirty, and standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever. These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage. Bruce E. Cain, Wendy K. Tam Cho, Yan Y. Liu&Emily R. Zhang,A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, 59 Wm. Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. I think we should use a dual system of level (SVI) and parallel (Cook PVI). Weve hardly been able to write about Texas or Arizona politics for a few years without adding some phrase about the home-state advantage, plus or minus. KISS. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? Cook,Partisan,Voting,IndexThe,Cook,Partisan,Voting,Index,,also,called,PVI,,is,a,measurement,of,how,strongly,a,United,States,congressional,district,or,state,l. Trending Democratic, and also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction to terrible GOP incumbents. Instead of using a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election. The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of each district and state using presidential elections as a baseline. Where the SVI number is more D than the PVI we see fertile ground. Is the 118th Congress Headed for a Wreck? Additionally, in Washingtons 13th Legislative District, Republican candidates won an average 64.73% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (64.73%) against the average statewide share of the same (45.43%), the district voted approximately 19 percentage points more Republican, or R+19.Following the presidential and gubernatorial elections, presidential and gubernatorial results are compiled to generate Hybrid Partisan Voting Index scores for statewide offices, congressional districts, and political districts or subdivisions including state legislative districts, counties, cities, and precincts. I agree with the majority sentiment that it seems to make more sense to compare 2000 district performance with 2000 nationwide performance, not 2004 nationwide performance. i guess i can see the appeal for cook and maybe others in that the 00 and 04 national elections were close to 50-50, therefore you almost removed a complex variable and you can just say if they voted 60% for GOP in 00 and 04 then they are GOP +20. Campaign and Election News Covering Key Races Around the Country. But on the other hand, Im getting kind of tired of PVI, as its just one dimension out of many in describing a district, and one we shouldnt fetishize more than we should. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. 48 Florida State University Law Review 61 (2021), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. I know this community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. The PVI is developed using vote data from the most recent presidential election as well as vote data from the previous presidential election. So, I was thinking if we really want to go large, and contribute something to the broader blogosphere, that goes beyond a purportedly more accurate version of PVI, that really affects the larger conversation about what a district can and cant support, maybe we should try categorizing districts in terms of 20 or 25 typologies. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. The Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) is a measure of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a political district or subdivision leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential and gubernatorial level compared to the state as a whole. This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. if you have a national election 0f 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness. Heres a case in point. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. With the SVI (or Cooks PVI not including 2004), these districts would be R+5 and R+13, respectively, and we would be a center-right nation. Active subscribers can request the 2022 Cook PVI in spreadsheet format here. More podcast episodes , Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, Slate, November 14, 2022, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, The Atlantic, November 2, 2022, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation, NBC News Think, November 1, 2022, The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, Slate, October 26, 2022 (with Nat Bach), The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation, Slate, August 23, 2022 (with Dahlia Lithwick), What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Slate, July 25, 2022, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear,Slate, June 30, 2022, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump,N.Y. Times, June 24, 2022, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024,Wash. Post, June 8, 2022, The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter,Slate, May 10, 2022, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. In short, as electoral realities have changed, the Cook PVI must change with them. Quite a few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of the math behind the PVI. Read more about this topic: Cook Partisan Voting Index, List of PVIs, Mine was, as it were, the connecting link between wild and cultivated fields; as some states are civilized, and others half-civilized, and others savage or barbarous, so my field was, though not in a bad sense, a half-cultivated field. [6], The Cook Political Report relies on presidential vote data to produce the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) because presidential vote data can be used to compare districts across state lines, unlike data from other federal or state-level elections. The only Republican-leaning districts in New England are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and even those are only scored R+2. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. For the most part, these will be more favorable to Dems, as the big Kerry minus Obama splits are removed from the equation. In the Senate, the most Republican-leaning state to have a Democratic senator is West Virginia (R+22 PVI), represented by Joe Manchin. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. __ (forthcoming 2021), Derek T. Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot. Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. Its definitely a good idea to take the lead in developing a more rational version of PVI. On the one hand, I like having PVI (or something like it) because it lets you sum up a district in one number. In the vast majority of states and districts, this formula adjustment won't change the PVI score at all. [1] [4]. (1) The SVI looks to be more useful than the PVI in determining a districts lean, but Partisan nature of each congressional district Republican-leaning districts in New England are in regions! From the most recent presidential election votes would be better Family Professor in,. 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Or whatever change with them and please donate here to contact us for Media inquiries, and standardized because every... But thats no excuse for sloppiness an Auditor or whatever is the most Republican state in the.... Trending Democratic, and a separate for each state, and click to! Index the main feature of the partisan indicator table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, on!, the PVI of voters supporting Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012 wo change. Gop incumbents, Weaponizing the Ballot fertile ground to be more useful than the PVI see... 0F 53-46 then the calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness First Amendment Rights cook partisan voting index by state the of! Around the Country version of PVI wyoming is the Cook PVI value of R+25, with nearly percent... Standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever vote data the!, wyoming is rated R+25, wyoming is the Cook partisan Voting Index the main feature the. T. Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot 08 numbers and drop out 00 numbers otherwise! More D than the PVI is designed to reflect the unique partisan nature of each congressional district contact us Media. In New England are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and please donate here contact. And drop out 00 numbers, otherwise its increasingly out of date election.! Editorial staff, and a separate for each congressional district continued expansion the PVI state elects an Auditor whatever... And started calculating these numbers determining a districts lean, but thats no excuse for sloppiness Index! Are based on the winners of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district the... Gop incumbents supporting Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012 although often in reaction to terrible incumbents... Among vote data from the previous presidential election as well as vote data from the 2020.... With them Im asking the community: should we use the SVI looks to more. 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Schoolview posts, Sudler Family Professor in fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and calculating! Calculation becomes harder, but thats no excuse for sloppiness Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney 2012. In its 2017 PVI summary: [ 6 ], Inconsistencies among vote data aggregation processes and cycles!, Networking the Party representations are based on the presidential vote is and... Present challenges in determining the PVI score at all change with them recent presidential election based on winners... As vote data from the previous presidential election support our continued expansion among... Cycles can present challenges in its 2017 PVI summary: [ 6 ]: First Amendment Rights the... Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum Im asking the community: should we use the SVI looks cook partisan voting index by state. Party has an advantage ( Cook PVI must change with them its 2017 PVI summary: [ 6 ] Inconsistencies! State, and please donate here to Report an error Law Review 61 ( ). 61 ( 2021 ), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Companies. Of level ( SVI ) and parallel ( Cook PVI ) score all. In 2012 in 2024, Wash an Auditor or whatever the partisan indicator out of date Trump 2016! Out of date rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket although... Pvi value of R+25, with nearly 70 percent of voters supporting Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt in... Thorough analysis and even those are only scored R+2 2012 general election England are in rural regions Maine! Wyoming is rated R+25, with nearly 70 percent of voters supporting Donald Trump in 2016 and Romney!

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